PwC predicts collapse of car sales because of self-driving cars

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PricewaterhouseCoopers – the world’s largest professional services firm – has just released an analyst note about the effects of autonomous cars on the auto industry. While the report is extremely positive about the technology (predicting a reduction of traffic accidents by a factor of 10) it cautions that the fleet of vehicles in the  United States may collapse from 245 million to just 2.4 million. This is a reduction by the factor of 100 and significantly higher than the factor of 10 provided in a recent study by  the Earth Institute which we highly recommend.

It is encouraging that the major consulting firms and think tanks are beginning to take note of the tectonic shifts which will occur in the auto industry within a few years – and which we have emphasized for the last 3 years. The study contrasts with a recent report by KPMG on “Self-driving cars – the next revolution“. While KPMG’s analysts briefly mentioned on-demand mobility services (autonomous car sharing), they failed to see its disruptive potential.

It is time for the auto industry to seriously plan for this future. Contact us – we can help!

 

 

Levels of autonomy for driverless cars

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As driverless car technology progresses, there is considerable misunderstanding about the different flavors of autonomous vehicle technology. When car makers talk about driver assistance systems, they have to address some very different issues than when researchers look towards fully autonomous systems which are capable of completely independent (possibly even off-road) operation. We propose to distinguish the following three different levels of autonomous operation (Assistive, Managed, Independent) and provide an explanation of some of the unique issues that need to be addressed for each of these levels.

Levels of autonomy Characteristics Examples Unique problems
Assistive (lowest) Driver assistance system can perform certain driving tasks autonomously, human driver is always needed. Intelligent cruise control keeps lane, manages speed and brake on highways, intelligent parking, …
Mercedes Distronic Plus, Lexus Advanced Pre-Collision System, Volvo Pedestrian Detection		 Switching between human driver and driver assistance system. Understanding driver’s intentions; deciding when to act autonomously without driver consent (e.g. pre-crash braking); deciding when situation is too complex for driver assistance system
Managed (medium) Car drives fully autonomously but relies on regularly updated external knowledge (and possibly services) provided remotely Google driverless car; compares environment to continually updated 3D map from Google servers; car can not miss known stop lights because of the map; data exchange is two-way: driving updates the map; Map may include predefined routes for areas that are difficult to navigate. Operation may be limited to mapped area. Building the initial map, maintaining it, interfacing with third-party data sources to keep map up to date.
Propagating changes to vehicles.
Coping with perceived changes to the environment which are not yet in the shared map (e.g. new construction zone: update map; missing stop light: may need additional (human?) verification to avoid sensing errors)
Independent (high) Car operates fully autonomously and matches human driving ability even in unknown terrain without external communication. Mostly research prototypes, e.g MuCar3. Usage scenarios that may require independence: military, off-road, emergency response. Requires a very high level of contextual knowledge and reasoning.
What is the minimum level of prior map knowledge required for safe operation in normal traffic in this mode?
© 2013 Hars, A.: driverless-future.com

Audi first automaker to receive Nevada test license for autonomous cars

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After Continental reported their test license in Nevada in December, Audi USA now claims to have become the second recipient of a license for testing autonomous cars – before Continental and after Google. Audi’s driverless Audi TTS race car can now roll through Nevada. The car has been developed by Stanford University and the Volkswagen Electronics Research lab in Silicon valley. In their statement Audi introduces the somewhat misleading term ‘piloted’ driving and ‘piloted’ parking for their autonomous driving. Apparently they still have a hard time imaging a future without driver or pilot…

Source: Audi 1,2

Update 09 Jan: German newspaper FAZ reports from CES hat Audi was optimistic about the introduction of driverless cars and expects to see autonomous vehicles on the market before the end of this decade.

 

 

 

Continental to make fully automated driving a reality by 2025

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Over the past weeks the board of automotive supplier Continental has reoriented its long-term strategy. Acknowledging that automated driving will be a key element in the mobility of the future the board has outlined a path to fully automated driving and created an “Advanced driver assistance systems” business unit. Continental already has more than 1000 specialists working on automated driving technology.

By 2016 Continental plans to have driver assistance systems in production that can operate on freeways in stop&go situation (below 30 km/h). By 2020, they will make highly automated driving possible – i.e. autonomous operation on freeways up to 130 km/h. This should fit well with the time frame outlined earlier last year by the Japanese government for enabling autonomous driving on Japanese highways. Continental then plans to provide more fully automated driverless technology by 2025, but still envisions automated driving as being restricted to the freeway. It is hard to see the difference between their highly and ‘fully’ automated driving in their scenarios.

Source: Continental

Two days after this announcement, Continental became the first automotive supplier to receive a test license for autonomous driving in Nevada. Their test car has already driven more than 24000 km apparently on highways and in stop-and-go traffic. The car is equipped with current, production-grade sensors and is able to operate without the costly LIDAR system used by most other autonomous vehicles.

This new strategic focus by Continental is an indication of the fundamental shift which is currently gaining momentum in the automotive industry. Within the next two to three years we expect to see the auto makers acknowledge and come to understand the full implications of this trend.

Sources: Continental 1,2

 

Driverless campus shuttle being tested at Swiss university

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Students at the Ecole Polytechnique of Lausanne may soon drive across campus in up to 6 driverless shuttles developed by French company Induct. The Navia shuttles, of which the first was delivered to the university in December for testing, operate autonomously with a speed of up to 20km per hour. They are fully electric, are equipped with GPS, laser sensors, 3D cameras and can transport up to 8 persons. The shuttles are ideal for last mile transportation. As the laws in most European countries still require all cars to be operated by a driver they currently only can be operated in private areas – such as airports, business and amusement parks, shopping malls, university campuses etc. By removing the first/last mile hurdle, Induct’s shuttle technology has great potential for making public transport more appealing and effective. Compared to individual autonomous vehicles, they are also much easier to justify economically because the high costs of current autonomous technology (especially 3D sensors) are less of an issues for multi-passenger vehicles which clock so many more operating hours than private cars.

Source and copyright: http://www.induct-technology.com

Induct is not the only company focusing on autonomous shuttles. Google operates (or has operated?) a fleet of autonomous golf carts on their campus. Robosoft, another French company also offers 2 types of such shuttles, which have been developed in the European CityMobil research project).

The technology certainly has great potential to become a starting point for more efficient and environment-friendly autonomous people movers and buses. Hopefully the legal framework will be adapted soon to allow the operation of such shuttles in public. This applies especially to European countries which have been heavily financing research in such autonomous transportation systems for almost a decade (and are continuing to do so e.g. in the new CityMobil2 project).

Radar on a chip reduces sensor costs

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European research project SUCCESS has developed a low-cost radar system which could help reduce the costs for some of the autonomous car sensors. The tiny chip contains all required high frequency processing components and even includes the antenna! The radar operates in the 122GHz band and has a wavelength of 2.5mm. It can measure distances and velocity of moving objects within a range of up to 5 meters with high precision. The sensor was developed by a consortium of European companies including Bosch, Silicon Radar and the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology. At an estimated price of less than 2 U$ the chip has a wide field of potential applications and may be especially attractive for smaller autonomous devices where it could replace currently used ultrasound sensors.

Driverless cars needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions!

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By the end of this century, global warming could increase the world’s mean temperature by 4 degrees Celsius, warns a recent report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The effects would be dramatic: “unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on human systems, ecosystems,
and associated services“.

Road transport is responsible for about 5 billion tonnes of CO2 annually (data: 2008) which is almost 20% of total global CO2 emissions. Growth in global transportation is likely to further increase these numbers. Global policy makers are searching for ways to limit this growth in greenhouse gas emissions but they still fail to see the potential of autonomous vehicles:

1) Autonomous vehicles could greatly decrease greenhouse gas emissions in urban traffic because
– Car-sharing services could offer local mobility for a highly competitive price based on a fleet of smaller, lighter cars which therefore cause fewer emissions
– Local car sharing fleets would be ideal adopters for alternative, low-emission drives (electric cars, hydrogen, fuel cells). Because of their higher utilization levels, higher initial capital costs for the new technology as compared to the gasoline engine would not matter as much. Autonomous cars used for local trips would be an ideal application for getting electric cars into operation in high numbers.
– Increased use of car-sharing for local transport reduces the overall demand for vehicles which in turn reduces greenhouse gas emission for manufacturing automobiles.

2) Especially in emerging nations which don’t yet have a large percentage of car ownership driverless cars could be the basis for a much more effective transport system which uses a combination of shared driverless vehicles for short distances and buses, trains etc. for medium and long distance travel. Autonomous cars would establish an optimal link between individual and mass transit; small, local driverless vehicles could serve as feeders for the last mile by transporting individuals to/from local bus stations, train stations etc.

3) Driverless cars use roads more efficiently (fewer emissions because of less road construction), can reduce emissions by driving in convoys and don’t induce traffic jams.

Overall, autonomous vehicles could be a major technology to fight against climate change. The technology can even pay for itself: It is probably the only technology which lowers overall costs (of mobility, maintaining the infrastructure etc.). Policy-makers, take note!

Autonomous vehicles could slash road infrastructure costs

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Driverless cars are not only getting better at racing, they also drive more efficiently. They react faster and therefore require shorter safety distances. This increases the number of cars that can drive on a given road. A group of researchers from Columbia University have calculated the potential capacity increases and have shown that autonomous cars could greatly increase highway capacity. If cars are able communicate with each other and negotiate their speed and safety distance, highway capacity could increase by up to a factor of 4!

This could translate into great savings for infrastructure expenditures. Annual spending for highway infrastructure alone in the United States amounts to approximately 150 billion U$! Great savings could also be realized in developing countries with fast-growing road networks.

The paper systematically models different cases of capacity utilization and calculates the distances required between cars at different speeds and for different mixes of cars being operated by human drivers, running in autonomous, sensor-based mode or driving in connected mode. They find that the optimum capacity increase occurs when all cars are linked electronically. Just a few cars that are able to communicate makes little difference however. This is different for sensor-based, non-communicating autonomous cars. Even a few such cars would increase road capacity.

The paper provides great insights for anyone interested in the economic implications of autonomous car technologies. Investments in this technology have great potential of reducing road infrastructure expenditures.

Source: Tientrakol, P.; Ho, Y.-.C and Maxemchuk, N.F.: Highway capacity benefits from using vehicle to vehicle communication and sensors for collision avoidance. Vehicular Technology  Conference, 2011. (url)

Volvo cars aims for leadership in the field of autonomous driving

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At a seminar in Washington last week, Volvo executive Peter Mertens has vowed to move beyond concepts and bring driverless car technology to the customer. He emphasized that Volvo cars “aims to gain leadership in the field of autonomous driving”. He also lamented the current trend to regulate this technology on the state-level in the US and emphasized the need for a comprehensive legal framework.

Volvo cars, which is owned by the Chinese Zhejiang Geely Holding Group, has a long history of improving car safety and has participated in the EU SARTRE road train project which was completed this year.

In the wake of Nissan’s announcements last month concerning drive-by wire technology in some of their upcoming models and their (limited) self-driving Nissan ‘Leaf’ prototype the statement by Volvo cars may be another sign that the tide is turning and competition in the driverless space may start to heat up.

It will be interesting to see when the larger car manufacturers begin to communicate their autonomous vehicle strategy.

Source: Volvo Cars

 

The dangers of mixed-mode autonomous vehicles

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Will autonomous cars de-skill their human drivers? In a thoughtful presentation MIT researcher Bryan Reimer points out the dangers of letting cars drive themselves autonomously part of the time. As people rely on automated driving more, they drive less themselves and their experience shrinks which may make them more likely to err at the steering wheel. He also dismisses the idea that humans would be effective at monitoring an autonomous car’s actions and take over in difficult situations: Besides having to be constantly alert, they would need a much deeper understanding of the autonomous car’s capabilities and limitations to be effective in such situations.

These are important insights for the evolution of autonomous vehicles. They have direct implications on the way that driverless vehicles are conceptualized and for the legal frameworks. Current driverless car laws are are based on the idea that a human is in control or should be able to take over immediately in critical situations. The reality will be different. The laws will need to address truly autonomous operation (where no occupant can be held liable for the car’s operation).

Reimer proposes to increase human-centered research and developoment to improve the interface between driver and autonomous vehicle. But it is hard to see how this could overcome the dilemma he has sketched. Improving the autonomous capabilities of these cars to the point where they perform verifiably better than almost all human drivers seems to be the only realistic alternative.