HDI Gerling first insurance company to insure a driverless car

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Liability is often seen as one of the Achilles heels for driverless cars: Even if they are vastly safer than human-driven cars, any accident could lead to huge claims. Many fear that this may make it difficult for obtaining an insurance policy for autonomous vehicles.

Current autonomous car prototypes already operate in various countries in test mode and for them the issue of obtaining appropriate insurance is very real. We have just learned that the German MIG (‘Made In Germany’) prototype driverless vehicle which currently roams the roads of Berlin is being insured by HDI Gerling Industrial Insurance for damages of up to 100 Mio Euros. HDI Gerling, a subsidiary of the European Talanx insurance conglomerate, may thus have become the first insurer worldwide to insure a driverless vehicle.

Of course this policy is for test driving only and requires a backup driver behind the wheel who is able to take over from autonomous mode at any time. Nevertheless, the policy shows that insurance companies are beginning to take notice and marks another step forward in the push to market for driverless vehicles.

The fact that the Autonomo team (directed by Raúl Rojas) developing the prototype was able to secure a policy for its car shows that the huge claims problem may be over-rated: Insurers world wide are experts at calculating risk. They will not shrink from insuring autonomous cars. Once their safety has been tested and certified they will most likely be glad to insure autonomous cars. The cars will pose  much lower risks than human driven vehicles but – at least initially – the insurers will be able to over-emphasize the huge claims problem and command very healthy premiums, making this a very profitable business.

INRIA aiming to develop driverless car in Paris

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French research powerhouse INRIA intensifies their research on autonomous vehicles. Having participated in various EU projects (Cybercar, Cybercars2, HaveIT) which looked at intelligent transport systems where coordination between cars played a major role and various aspects of driver-assistance systems, they appear to readjust their focus on individual autonomous cars driving in urban traffic. They are offering a 3-year research position for developing a prototype (and completing a doctoral thesis). This work will include cooperation with business partner Valeo, a one-stop provider of all types of sensors needed for autonomous driving.

The project’s initial goal is to develop an autonomous vehicle for driving at slow speeds in urban settings on private roads around Paris. They will have a lot of work to do to catch up to Google’s self-driving car.

Don’t stop at the stoplight: Intersection management for driverless cars

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Driverless cars will fundamentally change mobility in more ways than we can imagine today. Researchers from the University of Texas at Austin have taken a hard look at how driverless cars could best negotiate intersections: The classic stoplight would be highly inefficient in a world comprised of only driverless cars. Therefore they have developed algorithms for managing the flow of cars at busy intersections. Cars would signal their arrival at an intersection to an intersection manager and request to pass the intersection. The intersection manager then looks for conflicts with other cars and allocates a time slot for for passing the intersection at a specified speed. This approach is over a 100 times more efficient than the classic stoplight and could greatly reduce congestion, driving times, and petrol consumption in city traffic. A simulation is shown below:

It will certainly take decades until only driverless cars will roam the streets. But intersection management could be implemented long before that time: Once a significant percentage of cars are autonomous, intersection managers could be added to stoplights and issue permissions to those autonomous cars that are at the front of the queue.

Overall this research by Peter Stone and his co-workers shows that driverless car technology holds much potential for improving traffic flow and reducing resource consumption.

More information: Article, Autonomous Intersection Management web site

Hawaii and California driverless car legislation picking up speed

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A resolution to ask the Department of Transportation to review policies and offer suggestions for driverless car legislation prior to 2013 has been introduced by 20 members of Hawaiis House of Representatives.

Driverless vehicle home-state California may be moving ahead quicker: Senator Padilla has introduced bill SB 1298 to remove remaining hurdles for testing and operating autonomous cars in California. The bill would allow the operation of driverless cars on public roads, provided that “the manufacturer certifies that the vehicle meets all of the safety standards and performance requirements to be specified by the department [of the California Highway Patrol]”.

If this bill is adopted, California could leap-frog Nevada to become the key state for operating driverless cars. Nevada already has approved legislation for the operation of driverless cars, but this is limited to state highways whereas the California bill does not contain such a restriction. California is not only the home-state of the Google driverless car group but also has has research groups from major automotive manufacturers such as BMW and Volkswagen.

Europe still seems to be asleep. Although the European Union has long encouraged the development of driverless technology, and France, Italy and Germany have very active research groups, they may have hard a time catching up once the train is out of the station.

Paths to adoption of driverless vehicles

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How will autonomous vehicle technology enter our lives? The discussion has not yet really begun, but here are the main lines of thought:

  • Gradual evolution: Autonomous technology will evolve functionally, first assisting the driver with singular tasks (lane control, collision warning, adaptive cruise control). More and more functions will be integrated until the car is able to drive autonomously in all situations. This is the currently dominant view, but it ignores much of the economic implications and transformation potentials of the technology.
  • Mobility service provider: Driverless cars will be introduced in high density urban centers where the percentage of non-car owners is already high, parking space is at a premium and most trips are relatively short-distance. They will be operated by mobility (car-sharing) providers. These networks will quickly spread nationwide, profit from economies of scale, and be able to offer personal mobility at significantly reduced total costs (our estimate is that a factor of 2 should be attainable from the start). For economic reasons alone, more and more people will dispense with their cars and switch to car-sharing.
  • Avalanche: Driverless car technology will gradually mature to a point where its economic and transformative potential becomes obvious. Decision makers realize that this technology will switch a large part of the mobility market from individual ownership to a mobility service provider / car-sharing model. Now the market players race to secure their position in the new market structure. Given the size of the mobility market at stake, enormous amounts of capital will be moved by current auto makers, governments and new entrants. Auto makers may be hardest hit as the volume demand for cars may shrink by a factor of 10 because of the much higher efficiency of the mobility service provider / car sharing model.

Some older or more specialized ideas:

  • Dedicated lanes: Autonomous technology will be introduced on dedicated lanes on highways or in the city. This is one of the oldest models. It has already been realized for low-intelligence autonomous pods in various locations (Heathrow Airport, Rotterdam). But this model can not lead to high adoption rates because of the high infrastructure costs for dedicated lanes. Furthermore, current autonomous technology can safely operate in mixed traffic without dedicated lanes.
  • Platoons of cars or trucks: Autonomous cars can use road capacity more efficiently by keeping shorter distances. This reduces fuel consumption and congestion. However, there are legal hurdles and problems of operating such platoons in mixed autonomous and non-autonomous traffic.

 

Autonomous long distance trains announced for Australia

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Mining giant Rio Tinto will invest U$518 million in autonomous trains for its long distance heavy haul rail network. The company plans to put the first autonomous train into operation in 2014. Rio Tinto currently operates 41 trains from its Australian mines to ports with 148 locomotives and 9400 iron ore cars.

The company expects productivity improvements because of greater flexibility in train scheduling and the removal of driver changeover times. Besides increased network capacity, they also expect more efficient fuel use and thus lower carbon emissions.

Generally trains are much better suited for autonomous operation than road-based vehicles because of their fixed tracks. Unfortunately, very few truly autonomous driverless trains are in operation today. While some cities have driverless commuter systems, these typically operate in carefully controlled environments where most of the intelligence is located within the rail network and little intelligence within the locomotive itself. The Rio Tinto approach needs to be different: because of the size of the rail network (1500km) most of the intelligence will have to be placed within the locomotive. Hopefully Rio Tinto will be able to demonstrate quickly that significant productivity improvements are possible by using autonomous trains and thus start the transition towards more efficient and cost effective public transportation systems. It remains to be seen, however, to what degree labour unions and train regulators will be able to limit progress in this area.

Image © Copyright 2012 Rio Tinto

Green license plates for driverless cars

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Nevada’s Department of Motor Vehicles has now issued the regulations for operating autonomous cars. In testing mode, they will carry red license plates and they must have at least two occupants. One of them must be able to assume control over the vehicle at all times. Once an autonomous car has been certified for fully autonomous operation, the car will display green license plates (Nevada’s  standard license plates are blue-gray).

Key issues of the regulation:

  • Whether physically present or not, the operator of an autonomous car shall be deemed the driver with respect to applicable traffic laws.
  • Operators of autonomous cars require a special Nevada driver’s license with a ‘G’ amendment. The amendment can be easily obtained for the holder of a Nevada drivers license and costs $5.
  • Autonomous cars may be sold in the state once they have passed testing and certification by the car manufacturer or an autonomous technology certification facility.
  • Autonomous technology certification facilities will be private entities and will be licensed by the Department of Motor Vehicle.

The regulation requires the following components within each autonomous car:

  • A black box which captures the last 30 seconds and retains its data for 3 years
  • A visual indicator when in autonomous mode inside the vehicle
  • An easily accessible, non detracting mode switch for engaging or disengaging autonomous mode
  • A failure routine which allows the car to transfer control back to the operator when it detects an error or which safely moves the car out of traffic and brings it to a stop should the operator not be able to assume immediate control.
  • It does not explicitly mention a mechanism to limit autonomous mode to the geographical area (e.g. Nevada highways) where autonomous mode is legal.

The regulation contains provision for the testing phase

  • Minimum 1 Mio U$ deposit or surety bond (maximum 3 Mio U$ for more than 10 vehicles)
  • Report any accident the autonomous car is involved with within 10 days to the Department.

This is a landmark regulation, setting up precedent on which other laws will be modeled. The regulation does not really solve the responsibility problem by deeming the operator the driver. It is clearly modeled on the assumption that the autonomous vehicle will be privately owned by Nevada residents, and does not consider the issue of car-sharing and operating autonomous vehicles as taxis (Would the taxi’s passenger be considered the operator and therefore need a Nevada driver’s license with ‘G’ amendment?).

By addressing the case where the operator is not present within the car, the regulation already looks ahead to the time where autonomous cars will not be limited to highways but may roam all public roads!

 

 

Florida’s autonomous car bill much weaker than Nevada’s

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The United States is quickly establishing itself as the leader in autonomous car technology. Several states are currently introducing bills addressing autonomous vehicles. Last summer Nevada became the first state to allow the operation of autonomous vehicles on state highways as long as conditions to be spelled out by the Department for Transportation are met.
Currently two bills adressing autonomous cars are moving through Florida’s house (HB 1207) and senate (SB 1768). However these bills are not in the same league as the Nevada law (AB 511):

  • While the Nevada law explicitly allows both the operation and testing of autonomous vehicles, the Florida bill only considers ‘the purpose of testing the technology‘.
  • In Nevada, autonomous vehicles need not be under the control of a human whereas the Florida bill specifies that the ‘operation of the test vehicle must be continuously monitored in a manner that allows active control over the vehicle to be immediately assumed by a human operator‘.
  • The Florida bill requires the Department of Transportation and Motor Vehicles to draft a report recommending legislative action related to autonomous vehicles by February 1, 2014. In contrast, the Nevada bill authorizes its Department of Transportation to ‘adopt regulations authorizing the operation of autonomous vehicles‘ and specifies the various issues which need to be addressed.
  • The Florida bill only has one area where it is wider in scope than the Nevada law: It applies to all public roads whereas the Nevada bill is limited to state highways. Of course, as a human needs to be able to assume immediate control at all times in Florida, there is little difference to the status quo anyway. Google has already driven driverless cars thousands of miles under such terms on public roads in California.

In summary, little seems to be gained from the Florida bill. It does not contain reasons for autonomous car manufacturers to head to this state and will not help to establish Florida as a leader in this nascent industry.

 

Thrun to teach free online course on programming robotic cars

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Driverless car pioneer and Stanford professor Sebastian Thrun will share his knowledge in this 7 week interactive online course. Thrun is not only the first winner of Darpa ‘s 2005 Grand Challenge competition for autonomous vehicles. He is also employed by Google where he leads their mostly secret Google cars project.

This will be a serious course, with a university-level work load, assignments and exams. Last fall Thrun and Peter Norvig taught their joint introductory class on Artificial Intelligence at Stanford in two versions: One version to their Stanford students and an online version with exactly the same content to approximately 160000 students from 190 countries. More than 23000 students completed the course!

After this experience Thrun co-founded Udacity, a company that believes that  “university-level education can be both high quality and low cost”. Through this venture Thrun simultaneously advances education and the adoption of autonomous cars. This course will excite thousands of students for this topic, advance the mind-share for autonomous cars and may even send future employees towards the Google robocars team.

The course CS373 is free, has few requirements – knowledge of the Python programming language would be helpful – and starts on February 20.

BMW shows highly automated driving on the Autobahn

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BMW’s research group has released a video of a modified BMW 5 Sedan driving autonomously on the German autobahn. The car is equipped with lidar, radar, ultrasound and camara sensing technologies. The car drives completely autonomously on the autobahn. It switches lanes automatically, recognizes speed limits, and can cope with a wide range of unusual situations. As the project’s leader Nico Kämpchen explains this requires exact knowledge of highway lanes – with centimeter precision! All the sensors have been integrated into the car in an unobtrosive way to avoid spoiling the car’s good looks. The car has now logged almost 5000 km of autonomous driving on the autobahn. While this is a research project, we expect that such technology will appear in high end models in the not so distant future.

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