Author Archives: Dr. Alexander Hars

Levels of autonomy for driverless cars

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As driverless car technology progresses, there is considerable misunderstanding about the different flavors of autonomous vehicle technology. When car makers talk about driver assistance systems, they have to address some very different issues than when researchers look towards fully autonomous systems which are capable of completely independent (possibly even off-road) operation. We propose to distinguish the following three different levels of autonomous operation (Assistive, Managed, Independent) and provide an explanation of some of the unique issues that need to be addressed for each of these levels.

Levels of autonomy Characteristics Examples Unique problems
Assistive (lowest) Driver assistance system can perform certain driving tasks autonomously, human driver is always needed. Intelligent cruise control keeps lane, manages speed and brake on highways, intelligent parking, …
Mercedes Distronic Plus, Lexus Advanced Pre-Collision System, Volvo Pedestrian Detection		 Switching between human driver and driver assistance system. Understanding driver’s intentions; deciding when to act autonomously without driver consent (e.g. pre-crash braking); deciding when situation is too complex for driver assistance system
Managed (medium) Car drives fully autonomously but relies on regularly updated external knowledge (and possibly services) provided remotely Google driverless car; compares environment to continually updated 3D map from Google servers; car can not miss known stop lights because of the map; data exchange is two-way: driving updates the map; Map may include predefined routes for areas that are difficult to navigate. Operation may be limited to mapped area. Building the initial map, maintaining it, interfacing with third-party data sources to keep map up to date.
Propagating changes to vehicles.
Coping with perceived changes to the environment which are not yet in the shared map (e.g. new construction zone: update map; missing stop light: may need additional (human?) verification to avoid sensing errors)
Independent (high) Car operates fully autonomously and matches human driving ability even in unknown terrain without external communication. Mostly research prototypes, e.g MuCar3. Usage scenarios that may require independence: military, off-road, emergency response. Requires a very high level of contextual knowledge and reasoning.
What is the minimum level of prior map knowledge required for safe operation in normal traffic in this mode?
© 2013 Hars, A.: driverless-future.com

Driverless cars needed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions!

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By the end of this century, global warming could increase the world’s mean temperature by 4 degrees Celsius, warns a recent report by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The effects would be dramatic: “unprecedented heat waves, severe drought, and major floods in many regions, with serious impacts on human systems, ecosystems,
and associated services“.

Road transport is responsible for about 5 billion tonnes of CO2 annually (data: 2008) which is almost 20% of total global CO2 emissions. Growth in global transportation is likely to further increase these numbers. Global policy makers are searching for ways to limit this growth in greenhouse gas emissions but they still fail to see the potential of autonomous vehicles:

1) Autonomous vehicles could greatly decrease greenhouse gas emissions in urban traffic because
– Car-sharing services could offer local mobility for a highly competitive price based on a fleet of smaller, lighter cars which therefore cause fewer emissions
– Local car sharing fleets would be ideal adopters for alternative, low-emission drives (electric cars, hydrogen, fuel cells). Because of their higher utilization levels, higher initial capital costs for the new technology as compared to the gasoline engine would not matter as much. Autonomous cars used for local trips would be an ideal application for getting electric cars into operation in high numbers.
– Increased use of car-sharing for local transport reduces the overall demand for vehicles which in turn reduces greenhouse gas emission for manufacturing automobiles.

2) Especially in emerging nations which don’t yet have a large percentage of car ownership driverless cars could be the basis for a much more effective transport system which uses a combination of shared driverless vehicles for short distances and buses, trains etc. for medium and long distance travel. Autonomous cars would establish an optimal link between individual and mass transit; small, local driverless vehicles could serve as feeders for the last mile by transporting individuals to/from local bus stations, train stations etc.

3) Driverless cars use roads more efficiently (fewer emissions because of less road construction), can reduce emissions by driving in convoys and don’t induce traffic jams.

Overall, autonomous vehicles could be a major technology to fight against climate change. The technology can even pay for itself: It is probably the only technology which lowers overall costs (of mobility, maintaining the infrastructure etc.). Policy-makers, take note!

The dangers of mixed-mode autonomous vehicles

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Will autonomous cars de-skill their human drivers? In a thoughtful presentation MIT researcher Bryan Reimer points out the dangers of letting cars drive themselves autonomously part of the time. As people rely on automated driving more, they drive less themselves and their experience shrinks which may make them more likely to err at the steering wheel. He also dismisses the idea that humans would be effective at monitoring an autonomous car’s actions and take over in difficult situations: Besides having to be constantly alert, they would need a much deeper understanding of the autonomous car’s capabilities and limitations to be effective in such situations.

These are important insights for the evolution of autonomous vehicles. They have direct implications on the way that driverless vehicles are conceptualized and for the legal frameworks. Current driverless car laws are are based on the idea that a human is in control or should be able to take over immediately in critical situations. The reality will be different. The laws will need to address truly autonomous operation (where no occupant can be held liable for the car’s operation).

Reimer proposes to increase human-centered research and developoment to improve the interface between driver and autonomous vehicle. But it is hard to see how this could overcome the dilemma he has sketched. Improving the autonomous capabilities of these cars to the point where they perform verifiably better than almost all human drivers seems to be the only realistic alternative.

European robot trials showcase autonomous technology

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Every year robot trials are conducted in Europe (‘European Land Robot Trials’). The event alternates from year to year between military (M-ELROB) and civilian scenarios (C-ELROB). This years military-oriented event took place Thun, Switzerland from Sept 24 to 28.

14 teams participated performing a variety of autonomous and partiallly autonomous tasks including intelligent surveying and reconaissance, follow-the leader, transport and mine detection.

A German autonomous car prototype based on a Volkswagen Touareg developed by the Universität der Bundeswehr in Munich participated in some of the trials.The MuCAR-3 – shown below has participated in several previous ELROB trials with great success. This time, however, the prototype did not perform quite as well and did not take home any prizes. One reason for slower than usual progress in the past year may have been changes within the research team. It will be interesting to see what the team, which focuses on all-terrain navigation and driving, will be able to showcase next year.

 

 

 

Paths to adoption of driverless vehicles

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How will autonomous vehicle technology enter our lives? The discussion has not yet really begun, but here are the main lines of thought:

  • Gradual evolution: Autonomous technology will evolve functionally, first assisting the driver with singular tasks (lane control, collision warning, adaptive cruise control). More and more functions will be integrated until the car is able to drive autonomously in all situations. This is the currently dominant view, but it ignores much of the economic implications and transformation potentials of the technology.
  • Mobility service provider: Driverless cars will be introduced in high density urban centers where the percentage of non-car owners is already high, parking space is at a premium and most trips are relatively short-distance. They will be operated by mobility (car-sharing) providers. These networks will quickly spread nationwide, profit from economies of scale, and be able to offer personal mobility at significantly reduced total costs (our estimate is that a factor of 2 should be attainable from the start). For economic reasons alone, more and more people will dispense with their cars and switch to car-sharing.
  • Avalanche: Driverless car technology will gradually mature to a point where its economic and transformative potential becomes obvious. Decision makers realize that this technology will switch a large part of the mobility market from individual ownership to a mobility service provider / car-sharing model. Now the market players race to secure their position in the new market structure. Given the size of the mobility market at stake, enormous amounts of capital will be moved by current auto makers, governments and new entrants. Auto makers may be hardest hit as the volume demand for cars may shrink by a factor of 10 because of the much higher efficiency of the mobility service provider / car sharing model.

Some older or more specialized ideas:

  • Dedicated lanes: Autonomous technology will be introduced on dedicated lanes on highways or in the city. This is one of the oldest models. It has already been realized for low-intelligence autonomous pods in various locations (Heathrow Airport, Rotterdam). But this model can not lead to high adoption rates because of the high infrastructure costs for dedicated lanes. Furthermore, current autonomous technology can safely operate in mixed traffic without dedicated lanes.
  • Platoons of cars or trucks: Autonomous cars can use road capacity more efficiently by keeping shorter distances. This reduces fuel consumption and congestion. However, there are legal hurdles and problems of operating such platoons in mixed autonomous and non-autonomous traffic.

 

Nevada becomes first state to allow autonomous vehicles

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With the passing of Assembly Bill 511 this month, the state of Nevada becomes the first state to authorize the operation of driverless cars on state highways. The bill is the result of heavy lobbying by Google. It mandates the Department of Motor Vehicles (DMV) to issue regulations for the testing, insurance and operation of driverless cars. In addition the DMV needs to establis a driver’s license endorsement for the operation of autonomous vehicles which must ‘recognize the fact that a person is not required to actively drive an autonomous vehicle.
In a separate Senate Bill 140 an exemption was added to ensure that occupants of an autonomous vehicle may cell phones and mobile devices while the car is in autonomous driving mode.

This is a big step towards the driverless future!